Trade wars, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), China stimulus and the direction of the U.S. dollar dominate our near-term outlook. At this juncture, U.S. recession risks appear low. European growth can improve over the next couple of quarters. We view emerging markets as oversold, but see a bounce dependent on the next move in the ongoing trade wars between the U.S. and other countries. The defensive qualities of the Japanese yen exposure are still seen as attractive …