History will likely show that 2018 was the peak for GDP growth in the current economic cycle. While growth is expected to be softer in 2019, we don’t anticipate a significant slowdown and expect all major developed economies will still be growing ahead of their respective trend rates.

Growth was strong in the US in 2018. Into 2019, the impact of fiscal stimulus fades, but strong growth in labour income will continue
to support solid growth in activity. The disappointing feature of US growth was the moderation in growth in investment spending as the year progressed, while another area of weakness was the residential housing market. On balance, we see GDP growth slowing to around 2.5% in 2019 and then further to around trend in 2020 …