Recession risks are rising as trade tensions depress global manufacturing and the inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve signals warning. While we’re cautious for now, a combination of central bank easing, a trade-war truce and China stimulus could brighten the outlook.

Key highlights

• Cautious in the near term.
• China’s economy continues to slow.
• Japanese equities look slightly cheap.
• The combination of falling interest rates and a depreciation in the New Zealand dollar propped up the equity market, given the high proportion of bond proxies and foreign earners