InvestNow News – 2nd Dec 19 – Harbour – Macro Research Day: Mixed Signals
Hamish Pepper – 28th Nov 19
- Harbour’s internal Macro Research Day is a chance to hear from external research providers, challenge assumptions and anchor our medium-term view.
- The local outlook is mixed. Monetary conditions have eased and should support a recovery, but structural impediments mean business confidence may not pick up.
- The global picture has improved which makes additional central bank support less likely.
Harbour held its bi-annual internal Macro Research Day recently where, with the help of several external speakers, we examined the drivers of poor New Zealand business confidence, the outlook for the domestic economy ahead of next year’s election and global risks. The Macro Research Day is an important part of Harbour’s research calendar, providing a chance to test our medium-term view of the market outlook.
The key takeaways were:
Despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)’s recent unexpected pause, New Zealand monetary conditions have eased materially this year and should support a recovery in activity.
The household sector will play a vital role via higher house prices, increased residential investment and consumption (driven by both lower interest rates and a positive housing wealth effect). The figures below show …