InvestNow News – 17th April – APN – After the virus; how commercial property might change

Mark Mazzarella

Within a few weeks, our understanding of COVID-19’s spread seemed to progress from significant but largely contained to full-scale pandemic. Restrictions on work travel and a preference for virtual meetings escalated to panic buying and living in lockdown.

None of us has experienced the realities of an extended ‘hibernation’ across all aspects of society before. Entire industries have been shuttered and workforces stood down and no one knows how long this will last or what the fallout will be.

What we do know is that, along with almost every other sector of what was once our economy, commercial property has been disrupted by COVID-19 and the use of social distancing to fight it.

Property investors are attracted by the prospect of earning a relatively high risk-adjusted return, supported by tenants who are legally obliged to pay it. That is now in question. With many corporate and private tenants adversely affected by shutdowns and the absence of customers, they’re searching for relief wherever they can find it.

In more conventional periods, the rent line of the profit and loss statement wouldn’t be the first place to start but these are unconventional times. This means that commercial property will share in the losses from COVID-19, although some segments will share more than others.

Real estate centred around discretionary spending, especially if tethered to high social interaction, has been most affected. Take the leisure and hospitality sector, where pubs – oddly classified as a non-essential service – have been forced to close. Tenants have been confronted by the immediate prospect of zero revenue for an uncertain period.

Despite shopping centres being classified as ‘essential services’ and remaining open, landlords are dealing with declining foot traffic. Tenants have voluntarily closed stores, while many are in negotiations with landlords for rent relief. Inevitably, the pain will be shared. Both parties will need to agree on a collaborative framework and a long-term built around mutual best interests.