China stimulus, global central bank easing and a U.S.-China trade-war ceasefire could set the scene for a rebound in the global economy later in the year. However, the inversion of the U.S. yield curve and the downtrend in business confidence indicators keep us cautious at mid-year.

We have an underweight preference for U.S. equities, driven by expensive valuation and cycle concerns around the trade-war escalation, fading fiscal stimulus and yield curve inversion.

Read the latest 2019 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update with our strategists’ market expectations for the months ahead.