“A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organised.” – AnonymousEach half, as part of our outlook for the coming six months, we provide a series of “anti-forecasts” for what will NOT happen between now and December 31st, 2019.First, we must reflect on the performance of our last set of “anti-forecasts” over the half that just ended.

BACK CHECK

Emerging Markets will NOT underperform Developed Markets

Miss!  Our optimism on Emerging Markets based on their better performance through the December sell-off proved to be misplaced. US dollar strength, further trade wars, and weaker economic data meant they lagged behind Developed Markets – mainly the US – again.

Short-Term Interest (2-year yields) rates will NOT be lower

Miss!  The first line of the prediction started so well “a Federal Reserve that walks back on their rate hikes” – which was indeed the case. The rest was completely wrong. Rates markets are now pricing four rate cuts in the next 12 months, pulling the 2-year yields down dramatically over the half.