• Harbour’s Macro Research Day is a chance to revisit research anchoring our medium-term view.
• Locally, we expect economic activity to moderate rather than slow sharply. While on one hand the market is pricing in cuts to the OCR, we continue to see core inflation measures rising which means that rate cuts, while possible, are not a done deal.
• Globally, we see global monetary policy remaining supportive of financial markets. While global growth has moderated in recent months, the likelihood of a recession is still low.

In recent years, Harbour’s internal six-monthly Macro Research Day has been an important part of our research calendar. It provides an opportunity to undertake a thorough review of the medium-term outlook for the macroeconomy and its implications for fixed interest, equity and multi-asset portfolios.

Our Macro Research Day last week commenced with presentations by economists from two of New Zealand’s largest banks discussing key drivers of the New Zealand economy. This included business confidence and the potential impact of the Reserve Bank capital requirements which has recently been one focus of our research agenda.

We then reviewed the perspectives from our global research partners bringing about significant discussion and debate. The sharp end of the day was a survey of Harbour’s investment team on the outlook for key economic variables and asset classes over the next 12 months.