EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Global growth was solid in the first half of 2018, though that relative stability is thanks to a US economy that has been going from strength-to-strength. Indications are the global output gap is broadly closed, as growth has improved and global inflationary pressure will gradually continue to build.

Trade policy is the biggest downside risk. While North American trade negotiations ended positively with a new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement featuring no significant changes, […]

• Our internal Macro Research Day is a chance to re-visit the research that anchors our medium-term view.
• Locally, we expect economic activity to moderate rather than slow sharply, and the RBNZ to remain on hold for a considerable time ahead to provide the best chance for core inflation to lift above 2%.
• Globally, we see interest rates rising, but with monetary policy still […]
  

“the architecture of the world is changing before our very eyes” Donald Tusk, President of the European Council

The world is changing, with trade wars, divisive politics and Brexit. These stem from powerful undercurrents including shifting global power (USto China), inequitable wealth distribution and global immigration. Add in an economic environment of strong corporate earnings, higher inflation and higher interest rates, and it is […]