Following up on a recent visit to Australian and New Zealand, Jack McIntyre, Portfolio Manager for Brandywine Global penned the attached commentary which I hope you find helpful as we watch some of the key Geo-political issues near their end.
“… The topic of US – China trade tensions has been at the forefront of almost every conversation I’ve had over the last two weeks with clients in Australia and New Zealand. It makes sense. That part of the world is on the front lines of world trade. During those discussions, I heard a line that makes a lot of sense: when the elephants fight, the mice get squashed. In this analogy, the US and China are the elephants and the rest of the global economy is the mice. At the beginning of the year, I blogged about the possible trinity, where risk assets needed three catalysts to perform well in 2019:
- The rest of the world needs to experience more stable growth relative to the US economy.
- China needs to do more to stimulate its economy.
- The US and China need to continue making progress on trade …”